MINDANAO WAR "TEMPLATE"

The Little President is trying to play general (again!), this time in Mindanao. I’m worried.

She’s marching through the same path Erap took at the dawn of the new millennium, acceding to his generals’ wishes to “finish off” Muslim separatists and thereby earn “pogi points” from the public. What we witnessed instead was a virtual stalemate arising from President Estrada’s epic miscalculation (some say, it was the total of absence of it) about his quarry’s strength and the AFP’s own capabilities.

It seems PGMA will suffer the same fate. Even this early, I can see where her Basilan and Sulu campaigns are headed – an embarrassing deadlock. The Army has been battered in both places; the beheading of ten soldiers in Basilan is the pretext for this latest offensive. As if the AFP doesn’t already have its hands full.

Looking at my “crystal ball” (I think it's better I call it my "crystal bull") here is how I see it will go. PGMA will declare war (in mock indignation over the Abu Sayyaf and/or MNLF and/or MILF atrocities). Muslim “terrorists” melt away to civilian areas, begin a bombing campaign or take hostages en masse. The Army bombs, bombards and straffs suspected rebel lairs (likely causing a lot of “collateral damage”). Local (especially religious leaders) and international groups (especially the OIC) bear pressure for government to stop the fighting. The offensive stops, both the military and Muslim groups declare victory. The AFP may “neutralize” some key leaders but the core of the rebellion remains. This isn’t really a prediction. It’s more of a time-tested template.

In almost a decade of covering the military for the Philippine Star, I had several opportunities to observe military operations in Mindanao. The AFP’s favorite weapons are the 105mm howitzers and OV-10 Bronco’s. In short, the underlying and overriding philosophy of their campaign strategy has always been overwhelming firepower. They fire those howitzers morning, noon and night. After unloading their ordnance, the Bronco’s fly fast and low, as if in salute. Surreal. I recall how I thought they looked eerily like scenes from Coppola’s Apocalypse Now.

I have to confess I enjoyed those coverages. Roughing it in the field, imagining the soldier’s perils, and marveling at the firepower brought to bear on the “enemy” have a certain allure. We journalists liked to think we too were involved in this mortal struggle. That ends at sunset. We’d likely be found in the nearest city (certainly not some remote shanty-town), gulping ice-cold San Miguel while ogling the girls. Nothing wrong with that, so long as we get our stories out first.

I guess it’s still the same today. A whole lot of people want these wars in Mindanao…except of course those likely to get caught in the fighting. They’re the women, children and elderly – Christians and Muslims alike – who are likely to bear the brunt of the suffering, death and destruction. They don’t understand why people safely ensconced hundreds of miles away would be so enamored by war in their towns and villages.

They will never understand that a confluence of desires and agendas hundreds of miles away has guaranteed their continued misery. And for so long as their suffering is not felt in those places, they should brace for more of these episodes of violence (I shudder at the thought of fanatics mounting a terror campaign in Metro Manila that could make the Valentine’s Day or Super Ferry bombings look like child’s play…if that time comes, we’ll really be in trouble!).

Of course, all that could change. Just stop presidents from playing generals and generals from playing warriors. The only real warriors are those in the frontlines, doing the bleeding and the dying. There’s no nobility in slaughter bereft of purpose or even a glimmer of hope that this latest war will not end in another pointless stalemate. Some reporters might feel deprived of the “action” but heck, they can get their kicks somewhere else.